Inventory Pressure Intensified, PV Glass Prices Are Expected to Drop Again in September [SMM Analysis]

As of August, the prices of new PV glass orders are as follows: 2.0mm single-layer coated (13.0-14.5 yuan/sqm); 2.0mm double-layer coated (14.0-15.5 yuan/sqm); 3.2mm single-layer coated (22.0-23.5 yuan/sqm); 3.2mm double-layer coated (23.0-24.5 yuan/sqm). By the end of August, domestic PV glass prices stayed temporarily stable, but the current PV glass industry is under significant inventory pressure, and the prices are expected to decline again in September.

Specifically, after several adjustments in August, domestic PV glass prices fell by nearly 1 yuan/sqm compared to the beginning of the month. The main factor for the price drop is the overall weakening demand in the PV industry. Scheduled module production and actual production both declined, and under the current loss-making situation, there is a strong intention to suppress the prices of auxiliary materials like glass. Glass inventory continues to rise, and companies are willing to lower prices to reduce inventory.

In terms of inventory, domestic glass industry inventory rose to 34.7 days in August, an increase compared to July. The inventory pressure on glass companies is unprecedentedly high, and the willingness to purchase modules remains low, with restocking as needed being the main approach.

From the supply side, as of August, three kilns were cold-repaired domestically, involving a capacity of 2,300 mt/day. In Anhui, two kilns were cold-repaired with a capacity of 1,800 mt/day, and in Hebei, one kiln with a capacity of 500 mt/day was cold-repaired. Recently, the number of kiln gate production lines has started to increase. Although there are no cold repairs, production is expected to decrease significantly, and future supply will continue to decline. However, the overall oversupply will continue.

In summary, for the price forecast after September, SMM believes that due to the limited recovery of scheduled module production and the increased inventory pressure in the glass industry, glass prices will drop again by about 0.5 yuan/sqm.